According to the Legislative Budget Board (LBB), the bill will generate a net savings of $158,250 through the biennium ending in 2027. This initial savings is attributed to delays between arrests and sentencing, as well as a potential reduction in misdemeanor case volume at the county level. However, after 2027, costs will escalate rapidly, reaching $3.56 million in FY 2028, $16.9 million in FY 2029, and over $37.4 million in FY 2030. These increases stem from the shift of forgery offenses to higher felony classifications, resulting in more individuals being incarcerated for longer periods.

The bill’s impact on local governments is uncertain. While county courts may see reduced misdemeanor caseloads, prosecution and supervision costs could rise. Additionally, shifting more cases from community supervision to prison sentences will increase the burden on the Texas Department of Criminal Justice, where the average cost per inmate per day is $86.50. This could lead to substantial long-term financial pressure on the state’s correctional system.

While the bill aims to deter forgery, the financial burden on the state could be significant. Alternative sentencing approaches, such as restitution programs or probation enhancements, could mitigate some of these costs while still ensuring accountability for offenders​.

SB 1379 presents a necessary policy update to deter forgery crimes, protect individuals and businesses from financial fraud, and ensure penalties align with the severity of the offense. By increasing the classification of forgery offenses, particularly for financial instruments, government records, and cases involving elderly victims, the bill strengthens enforcement against fraudulent activities that can have far-reaching economic and personal consequences. The intent behind SB 1379 is well-founded, as fraud-related crimes impose significant financial losses on both individuals and the state. A stronger deterrent may help reduce the prevalence of forgery-related offenses and improve public trust in financial and legal transactions.

However, while SB 1379 effectively targets serious forgeries, it also escalates penalties for low-level offenses, shifting some minor forgery cases into the felony system. This change raises concerns about proportionality in punishment, as it could lead to overcriminalization of non-violent offenders who may have otherwise been eligible for community supervision or alternative sentencing. Furthermore, the Legislative Budget Board (LBB) projects significant long-term costs, with over $37 million in additional expenses by 2030, primarily due to higher incarceration rates and longer prison sentences.

Given these concerns, Texas Policy Research recommends that lawmakers vote YES but also consider amendments to incorporate alternative sentencing measures, such as restitution programs, probation enhancements, or tiered penalty structures that allow judicial discretion in minor forgery cases. These amendments would preserve the bill’s deterrent effect while ensuring proportionality in sentencing, reducing unnecessary prison costs, and maintaining fairness in the justice system. With these revisions, SB 1379 can achieve its goal of strengthening anti-forgery laws without placing undue strain on the state’s correctional system or disproportionately punishing minor offenders.